Wynne’s Liberals hold lead in closing hours of campaign
Ontario Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne has recaptured what was a highly stable, modest lead (37.3 per cent, versus 31.3 for the Progressive Conservatives).
The 41st Ontario general election has been an interesting and closely-contested race. It featured an unusually stark choice between two polarized policy visions — a minimal government, austerity platform versus a progressive state model. Superimposed on this issue was the other master issue of the election: the issue of regime fatigue and deep concerns about the ethics and accountability of the veteran Liberal government. Other issues, such as leadership, also played into this campaign but those were the two dominant issues.
In short, Wynne appears headed for a victory. Indeed, with these figures, combined with a six-point lead among likely voters, Wynne is likely headed for a majority.
The campaign can be summarized as a five-part play:
Opening Act: An NDP pratfall follows Andrea Horwath’s decision to bring down the government over a budget seen by party supporters as more than acceptable. Confused and disappointed members immediately defect, leaving Horwath out of race she was tied in the week before.
Act Two: A steady but modest and stable lead emerges for Wynne, who seems to winning the policy vision battle.
Act Three: PC Leader Tim Hudak gets a post-debate boost as he successfully shifts from the policy debate he was losing to a focus on ethics and accountability. For the first time in the campaign, Hudak runs ahead on two separate nights and has the momentum.
Act Four: Regression to mean as the Hudak bounce retracts to the pre-debate patterns and Wynne rebounds.
Curtain call: While it’s never over ‘til it’s over, it appears that Wynne will succeed in the initially improbable goal of securing a new mandate.
Whether this is tragedy, comedy, or just a yawn depends very much on where one sits in the political spectrum. While it may seem rather surprising in light of the various claims about what the end results would be, it is notable that this result is really not that different from the results we saw in 2011 and will not come as a great surprise to the public.
Without further drama, here are our final results based on the last two nights of polling.
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