Conservatives set for tough fight in B.C. in next election, say experts
The federal government’s recent decision to approve the Northern Gateway pipeline doesn’t spell doom for the 21 Conservative MPs in the province but experts say they will have a tough fight in the 2015 election.
The federal government’s recent decision to approve the Northern Gateway pipeline—a project a majority of British Columbians oppose—doesn’t spell doom for the 21 Conservative MPs in the province but experts say they will have a tough fight in the 2015 election.
Greg Lyle, owner of Innovative Research Group, said there’s no evidence to suggest that the Conservative government’s approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline project is a “kiss of death” for Conservatives in British Columbia. While the decision presents risks to Conservatives seeking re-election, “they’re manageable risks at this point,” he said.
“Liberals and New Democrats don’t really like it. Liberals are more open than New Democrats, who just hate it. The question is how will swing voters look at this,” Mr. Lyle said. “I would say there’s a risk depending on how the debate goes on from here.”
It’s unclear how the Northern Gateway Pipeline will be affected by the Supreme Court of Canada’s landmark ruling last week to recognize for the first time in Canada aboriginal title to a specific tract of land, to the Tsilhqot’in people in British Columbia. The Supreme Court of Canada decision on June 26 overturned an earlier B.C. Appeal of Court ruling and recognizes title over 1,750 square kilometres of land to the Tsilhqot’in nation in the B.C. Interior. The decision will make it easier for First Nations to have title over lands.
The Conservatives frequently talk about sword issues and shield issues, said Mr. Lyle, and Northern Gateway is definitely a shield issue.
“The benefits are not seen as all that strong, and the risks are seen as quite real,” he said.
Keith Beardsley, a former deputy chief of staff at the PMO and now president of Cenco Public Affairs, said he wasn’t sure Conservatives would lose seats in the province but that they might have a tougher-than-normal fight, particularly in coastal ridings.
That said, Mr. Beardsley added the Conservatives will still benefit from vote-splitting on this issue.
“Keep in mind, if the Tories are the only party pushing pipeline and the other two [NDP and Liberals] are opposed, they can potentially split the vote,” Mr. Beardsley said. “Anytime you have a split vote, particularly in B.C., that’s when the Tories tend to benefit,” he said.
Enbridge’s $7.9-billion Northern Gateway project seeks to build a 1,177-km twin pipeline starting near the Alberta oil sands in Bruderheim, Alta., north of Edmonton, and ending at the port of Kitimat, B.C.
One pipeline would carry approximately 525,000 barrels per day of dilbit—diluted bitumen from the oil sands—west for export by supertankers from Kitimat, B.C. Those tankers would then navigate through the Douglas Channel to reach the Pacific Ocean, a route that’s 185-km long and is expected to take anywhere from 10 to 16 hours to clear. The supertankers will have to navigate the many islands that dot the relatively narrow waterway, as well as avoiding waters that are too shallow.
The second pipeline would carry about 193,000 barrels per day of imported condensates—a mixture of hydrocarbons used to thin heavy oils like bitumen for transport—in the other direction. Altogether the twin pipeline could transport up to 190-million barrels back and forth per year.
On June 17, Natural Resources Minister Greg Rickford (Kenora, Ont.) announced that the government “accepts” a Joint Review Panel’s recommendation that the pipeline is in the public interest subject to 209 conditions being met by Enbridge.
The decision amounts to Cabinet approval of the Northern Gateway pipeline project, so long as Enbridge meets the 209 conditions set out by the panel last December. Many observers were quick to call the government’s announcement “timid” and noted it was a marked change from earlier rhetoric that pointed to enthusiastic government support for the project.
Among the 209 conditions are requirements that Enbridge develop a Marine Mammal Protection Plan, community response plans, and a Tanker Acceptance Program that would set out vessel design and inspection ratings, among other things.
The pipeline has raised red flags among environmentalists, particularly when it comes to the threat of pipeline oil spills and accidents involving the supertankers that will be navigating the Douglas Channel full of dilbit.
The journey from Bruderheim, Alta. to Kitimat, B.C. will take the pipeline through more than 50 First Nations territories, the majority in B.C. A decision last week by the Supreme Court of Canada on traditional land claims stresses the need to properly consult with First Nations and opens the way for other land claims which could threaten resource development projects—particularly in B.C. where there are a large number of unresolved land claims.
Enbridge says the pipeline would generate $1.2-billion in tax revenue for B.C. over the next 30 years, as well as $4.3-billion in labour-related income. In B.C. alone, the pipeline will help create 3,000 new construction jobs and 560 long-term jobs, according to Enbridge, accounting for $32-million per year earned in salaries. Enbridge has also offered First Nations and Métis communities affected to become “equity partners” with a 10-per-cent stake in the pipeline and $300-million in estimated employment and contracts.
Enbridge has said it could take up to 16 months to meet the 209 pre-construction conditions.
While the pipeline is largely supported in Alberta, where the oil sands are a huge economic staple, it’s faced a lot of opposition in B.C. On April 12, the community of Kitimat held a plebiscite that saw 58 per cent vote against the project. A Bloomberg-Nanos poll released on June 3 found that 29 per cent of the 500 respondents polled between May 27 and 31 felt the pipeline should be approved, 33 per cent said it should be delayed for further review and 34 per cent said it shouldn’t be approved.
On June 18, a day after the government’s announcement on the pipeline, an Angus Reid Global poll of 1,773 respondents found 37 per cent thought the government had made the right decision, 29 per cent were not sure, and 34 per cent said it was the wrong decision.
Conservative MPs hold 21 of B.C.’s 36 seats, and another six seats will be added to the province in 2015 as a result of the recent electoral redistribution. One seat will be on Vancouver Island, while the others will be located in the Lower Mainland area.
Mr. Beardsley said the quieter tone and shift in language from the government in announcing its decision on the Northern Gateway pipeline is a reflection of how controversial the project is.
“They’re going to be a little bit more careful. You’re also closer now to the election than you were when they were calling everybody radicals and what have you, so they’re going to have to play this a little bit more carefully over the next year,” said Mr. Beardsley.
He said B.C. is always a hard fight between all of the parties, and the province will have particular importance for the Conservatives in the next election, and not just because of the six new seats up for grabs. The party doesn’t do well in Quebec, and Ontario will be a battleground where Conservatives may struggle to hold seats, he said, so B.C. matters.
“They’re going to have to retake or win a majority of those seats,” said Mr. Beardsley.
“It’s a volatile voting area, so it’s not one that anyone can take for granted.”
Mr. Beardsley said the government’s new tone on the pipeline marks a switch to the long-term strategy as the government can now let things play out as it’s up to Enbridge now to meet the 209 conditions, as well as the five conditions been outlined by British Columbia Liberal Premier Christy Clark.
After the government’s announcement on June 17, Ms. Clark made it clear that the province’s five conditions still had yet to be met by Enbridge.
The ball’s now been pushed out of the government’s court, said Mr. Beardsley, giving them refuge from opposition.
“The pressure will be on. The opposition will be trying to keep it on the government, but the government’s standard answer is going to be, you know, the project’s going forward and the experts said it’s good and it’s up to the company to meet the conditions. That’ll be their answer from now to probably the next election,” said Mr. Beardsley, adding it’s too soon to tell how the pipeline will play out as an issue in 2015, particularly as it’s not clear what stage it’ll be at by that point.
“It’s very rare that an election will be won and lost on just one issue,” he said.
David Crapper, president at Genesis Public Opinion Research, said the government stands to potentially pick up voters from other parties who are actually supportive of the pipeline project. Pointing to the Bloomberg-Nanos poll, Mr. Crapper said while it found 34 per cent opposed the government’s decision, that’s still less than the number of people in B.C. who voted against the Conservative party in 2011.
“It’s not clear to me that it will hurt them, and it’s equally clear to me that at the end of the day it could help them,” said Mr. Crapper.
Lorne Bozinoff, president and CEO of Forum Research, said a Forum poll done in October on the pipeline found 37 per cent approval in B.C., and 50 per cent against. He said these results would have been the peak of support for approval for pipelines as it was not long after the Lac-Mégantic rail oil tanker disaster. Mr. Bozinoff said it’s likely the narrowly won Tory ridings in B.C. “will be in jeopardy over this,” but also said the Conservatives will benefit from vote splitting among the opposition.
“I don’t think this will be tilting in their favour in the urban seats, but they can do lots of other things between Election Day [and now] to tilt on other issues,” said Mr. Bozinoff, adding that support for the pipeline is generally higher in rural areas to the east.
Conservative MP Dan Albas (Okanagan-Coquihalla, B.C.) put out a newsletter on the decision and said he supports an independent scientific process that “will handle the expected 650-billion dollars of investment over the next ten years in developing Canada’s natural resources.”
“It is important to recognize that this week’s announcement does not mean shovels will soon hit the ground,” said Mr. Albas in the newsletter.
Conservative MPs Bob Zimmer (Prince George-Peace River, B.C.) and Richard Harris (Cariboo-Prince George, B.C.) did not make themselves available for comment for this article.
NDP Finance critic Nathan Cullen (Skeena-Bulkley Valley, B.C.), whose riding includes Kitimat, said he’s been busy consulting communities across B.C. over the last few months. He said the pipeline offers “minimal” benefits to the riding and “enormous” risk. Residents are overwhelmingly against the pipeline, he said, and the issue has uniquely united coastal First Nations communities in opposition.
“We were raising the issue a lot in the House and in a very clear way asked a Conservative from B.C.—any Conservative, it didn’t matter who—to stand up and justify their decision. Certainly someone from Cabinet like Mr. Moore and Ms. Wong who were at table and agreed,” Mr. Cullen said. “So the fact that they all suddenly found their shoelaces so interesting was very interesting to me in the sense of how they’re trying to distance themselves from a politically toxic issue.”
Mr. Cullen said he’ll do everything he can to continue to fight the pipeline and that it will be a ballot question in 2015. He said an NDP government would put an end to the project.
“I’ve got an idea, how about I put out an open invitation to debate the merits of Enbridge Northern Gateway with the lead Conservative Minister in B.C. James Moore, that he can pick the time and place in British Columbia and he and I can have a debate,” said Mr. Cullen, saying he wants Mr. Moore to explain the pros and cons of the Cabinet’s decision.
The Northern Gateway pipeline is one of four major pipeline projects currently on the table. There’s also TransCanada’s Energy East project, the Keystone XL project, and Kinder Morgan’s planned expansion of the Trans Mountain line from Edmonton to Burnaby. Altogether, if built these projects would increase pipeline capacity by more than 2.8-million barrels per day.