Conservatives lead in latest federal election poll
A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds a three way race among the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals. With 5,401 respondents the Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.35%, 19/20.
Among decided and leaning voters the Conservatives lead with 31% (-4%) compared to 30% (+1%) for the NDP and 29% (+3%) for the Liberals with the Green Party at 6% (no change).
“Quebec and Ontario continue to drive national numbers as the Conservatives have slipped in Ontario to just a single digit lead and the NDP lead has shrunk in to Quebec to just a few points over surging Liberals. Nationally, this means we are back to a three way race with the Conservative lead narrowing to just 4 points over both the Liberals and the NDP,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.
Mainstreet Momentum Tracker
“Our Momentum Tracker continues to show the momentum with the Conservative party that now enjoys a 3 point lead over the NDP and an 5 point lead over the Liberals. In Québec, the Liberals and NDP are now neck and neck 30 to 28 with the BQ back at 21 and the Conservatives in fourth place at just 18. The strength of Conservative support continues to outpace both the Liberals and NDP and despite trailing distantly among undecided leaning voters and second choice for vote switchers, they hold a similar lead as we found two weeks ago.”
Post Debate Bump
“Whether the post debate bump enjoyed by Justin Trudeau and the Liberal party can be maintained, only time will tell, but this race has only just begun.” The bump is likely not from the debate itself but from the media coverage surrounding it.
Canadians Want May in More Debates
“An overwhelming majority of Canadians approve of allowing the Green Party leader to take part in future debates. 79% approve including 63% who strongly approve. Only 11% disapprove, with just 5% strongly disapproving.”
Most Following the Campaign, Even Now in Summer
“It appears that Canadians are engaged in this election, with over 7 in 10 indicating they are following the campaign, including over 40% who say they are following it very closely. This is both good and bad news for the candidates and leaders. While this represents an opportunity for all parties to communicate their platforms and policies, it also presents a risk that small mis-steps could have a significant effect on voter intention numbers.”
Regional Races Show a Divided Canada
“In the regional races, a few regions are beginning to be surprisingly competitive, with Manitoba being the most obvious. While Conservatives still enjoy a lead, the Liberals are just 7 points back and the NDP trail with just 15%. The NDP commands a big lead in BC, leading Liberals by 13 and the Conservatives by 15 at 38% and on the other end of the country, Liberals continue to dominate Atlantic Canada by 15% over the Conervatives and 20% over the NDP with 43%.”
No Leader Has Clear Senate Advantage
“Canadians are evenly split on which party leader they trust to fix the Senate, 24% for each of Tom Mulcair and Stephen Harper with Justin Trudeau just one point back at 23%. Although recent scandals involving Senators have been primarily with Harper appointed Senate members, he continues to be trusted with this file equally with his rivals.”
Uncertain Economy; Most Believe Canada is Entering a Recession
“The economy continues to be a major issue for the coming election as recent world events and oil prices affect the economy and employment negatively across Canada. Canadians are feeling less secure than they were a year ago, 44% vs just 14% who say they feel more secure. In fact, over 60% of Canadians believe we are already in a recession, compared to just 17% who say Canada is not in a recession. As that financial insecurity increases, look for greater scrutiny of each parties economic platforms.”
“When asked about the year ahead, more Canadians are pessimistic about the Canadian economy than optimistic by a factor of almost 2 to 1. (48% to 27%) When asked about their own personal financial situation in the next 12 months, the tables are turned with 48% saying they are optimistic vs just 28% saying they are pessimistic,” Maggi finished.
Regional Margins of Error: British Columbia +/- 3.59%; Alberta +/- 3.59%; Saskatchewan +/- 3.92%; Manitoba +/- 3.84%; Ontario +/- 2.68%; Québec +/- 3.17%; Atlantic Canada +/- 4.9% (all 19/20)
Source: Mainstreet Research
http://www.canadianly.ca/2015/08/14/conservatives-lead-in-latest-federal-election-poll/