B.C.’s New Democrats have a lead in popularity over the B.C. Liberals eight months before the provincial election, according to a new poll, but the race remains virtually tied in the key battleground ridings in Metro Vancouver.
A new Mainstreet Research poll, conducted for Postmedia News, found 38 per cent of decided and leaning voters in B.C. favour the provincial NDP — a five-point lead over the governing Liberals, who sit at 33 per cent. The B.C. Greens had 16 per cent support and the B.C. Conservatives 14 per cent.
“While the NDP currently has a five-per-cent lead over the Liberals, the NDP have led in the polls before only to be disappointed when the votes are counted,” said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research, in a reference to the NDP’s vast lead in polls but eventual loss in the 2013 election. “What should concern them is many more British Columbians don’t know where they stand compared to the Liberals.”
The NDP’s popularity is largely boosted by its dominance of Vancouver Island (48 per cent), where the party holds 11 of 14 seats. The Liberals remain more popular in the interior (36 per cent), where they won seats at the NDP’s expense in the last election, according to the poll.
The two parties are almost within the poll’s margin of error in Greater Vancouver, which is expected be the main battleground in the May 2017 election because it holds many of the swing ridings and almost half of the seats in the legislature.
“We’re seeing three different British Columbias,” said Maggi.
“However there is weakness in the NDP’s support. While 50 per cent of voters say the economy will be important when casting their ballot, only 21 per cent say the NDP are focused on job creation compared to 41 per cent for the Liberals.”
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,207 B.C. residents by landline and cellphone on Sept. 7 and 8. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.09 per cent, 19 times out of 20 and the results were weighed by age and gender based upon the census.
The NDP and Liberals have traded leads in polls by other companies this year. The weighted average by website ThreeHundredEight.com of three previous polls in May and August had the Liberals at 38.5 per cent approval, compared to 31.6 per cent for the NDP and 14.5 per cent for the Greens and 13.6 per cent for the Conservatives.
The Mainstreet poll found relatively high optimism about the economy and personal finances, which is expected to be the key re-election focus of the B.C. Liberals. Yet one in three voters polled were also unsure if the province was headed in the right direction.
“It doesn’t look like either party has been successful in selling a narrative about the state of the province,” Maggi wrote in his poll report.
B.C. remains split on the proposal by Kinder Morgan to twin its Trans Mountain oil pipeline, which runs from Alberta to Burnaby, according to the poll. Almost 43 per cent of people polled were opposed, 42 per cent were in favour and 15 per cent were undecided. Greater Vancouver residents were similarly divided on the pipeline project, with the highest opposition registering on Vancouver Island.
”Despite their own personal opposition it does look like some British Columbians have begun to accept the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion may be approved regardless,” said Maggi.
“These numbers are very similar to the ones we have found in British Columbia in previous polling.”
Ottawa is set to decide on the $6.8 billion project by Dec. 19.
The B.C. government’s climate change plan — which was attacked by many environmental groups for not immediately raising the carbon tax — also appears not to have caught the public’s attention, with the poll showing the majority of people polled hadn’t followed news of the plan and 36 per cent had no opinion.
NDP leads Liberals by by five percentage points, B.C. poll finds