Polling data expert Nate Silver predicted that Republican Donald Trump has a 10 percent greater chance than Democrat Kamala Harris of winning the Electoral College vote in Tuesday’s election.
On his “Risky Business” podcast with co-host Maria Konnikova posted Wednesday, he revealed that he does not put too much weight in polls coming out during the last week of the campaign, alleging many pollsters cheat to obtain their desired numbers.
He prefaced his overall forecast saying, “It’s still approximately a 50-50 race.”
“It’s basically 55-45 Trump or 54-45, with a small chance of a tie,” Silver explained with regards to the Electoral College vote.
“It’s been a little weird. I mean look, it’s gradually drifted to Trump over a fairly long period now. Two out of every three days Harris has lost ground in the forecast since roughly early October,” he said.
In his online forecast update published on Friday, Silver wrote that the race had tightened in his model, slightly.
“Good update for Harris with some strong polling for her in the Blue Wall states. Not much sign of a last-minute swing in the race,” he wrote, predicting Trump has a 53.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College to Harris’ 45.8 percent, according to his modeling.
NEW Nate Silver 2024 election forecast update
🔴 Trump: 53.8%
🔵 Harris: 45.8%“Good update for Harris with some strong polling for her in the Blue Wall states. Not much sign of a last-minute swing in the race. We are likely locked into something roughly in the toss-up range.” pic.twitter.com/8jFmbsngJE
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 1, 2024