Below is a geopolitical map of the Western Hemisphere as I see it today.
The principal geopolitical foes of the US in the Western Hemisphere—Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua—are firmly in the China and Russia camp.
Other countries can shift depending on the outcome of recent elections.
Here’s an overview of some of the most geopolitically important countries in the Western Hemisphere to help frame the broader picture.
Venezuela
A military confrontation over Venezuela appears increasingly likely.
Since Hugo Chávez’s rise to power in 1999, Caracas has aligned itself with Russia and China. Venezuela’s vast oil and gold reserves make it a geopolitical prize. The country holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves—over 303 billion barrels, around 17 % of the global total—concentrated in the Orinoco Belt. That’s more oil than Saudi Arabia’s reported reserves.
For China and Russia, Venezuela represents a geopolitical foothold in America’s backyard—much like how the US uses Taiwan and Ukraine to do the same to Beijing and Moscow.
Trump’s renewed “war on drugs” is a thinly veiled pretext for the US to advance its geopolitical interests in the Americas.
Further, earlier this year, Washington labeled Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua and the Cartel de los Soles as “foreign terrorist organizations,” a dramatic escalation without precedent. The designations paved the way for military and covert actions under counterterrorism authorities.
The US has amassed an impressive naval force off Venezuela’s coast in what Trump described as a campaign against “narco-terrorism.”
In reality, this looks more like classic gunboat diplomacy—the drugs-and-terrorism narrative is merely a thin patina of propaganda used to justify the policy. Venezuela is not a major cocaine producer, nor does it play any significant role in fentanyl trafficking.
Venezuela now stands at the crossroads of a changing world order. It’s difficult to imagine the US securing its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere while Venezuela remains in its current geopolitical orientation—promoting an ideology that Latin America should be independent of the US.
Guyana
Guyana has quietly become one of the most geopolitically significant states in the Western Hemisphere. Its oil boom, its vulnerability to a long-running territorial dispute with Venezuela, and its growing alignment with the US situate it at the forefront of the conflict over control of the Western Hemisphere.
Washington’s recent deepening of economic and security ties signals recognition of that shift. Meanwhile, Caracas’s legislative and military moves to assert control over Guyana’s Essequibo region reflect a bold challenge—not just to Guyana, but to the US’s hemispheric influence.
Cuba
Cuba may look small on a map, but its position—just 90 miles from Florida—makes it one of the most strategically important pieces on the hemispheric chessboard.
In a world where geography still defines power, Cuba’s proximity to the US and its historic defiance of Washington give it an outsized geopolitical weight.
As the US refocuses on consolidating influence in the Western Hemisphere, Cuba is a challenge.
For Washington, the island’s alignment with China and Russia complicates efforts to assert control over the region.
For Beijing and Moscow, Cuba offers a rare foothold in America’s own backyard—a place to project soft power, intelligence, and potentially even military influence, without crossing direct red lines.
Economically, Cuba’s partnerships with China and Russia help it survive under US sanctions. Beijing has become Cuba’s largest trading partner and a major investor in telecommunications, ports, and infrastructure. Moscow, meanwhile, has pledged more than $1 billion in economic cooperation and continues to strengthen energy and defense ties. These relationships allow Havana to maintain political autonomy and serve as a symbolic anchor for anti-US sentiment across Latin America.
In short, Cuba is more than a relic of Cold War geopolitics—it’s a live variable in today’s multipolar order.
Cuba is also a stark reminder of the limits of the US government’s power. Since 1959, Washington has unleashed covert operations, economic embargoes, and numerous attempts to topple the Cuban regime—and yet it remains.
What new move could the US now deploy that it hasn’t already tried?
Short of a full-scale military invasion—which would itself offer no guarantee of success—I don’t see any viable alternative.
That means the Cuban government is likely to maintain its current geopolitical orientation and continue serving as a thorn in the side of US ambitions in the Western Hemisphere.