by Frank Bergman
Concerns over Europe’s military readiness have intensified in recent years, particularly following the war in Ukraine and renewed pressure from President Donald Trump for NATO members to meet their defense spending obligations.
The conflict in Ukraine has underscored the role of attrition warfare and sustained troop deployments, raising questions about manpower capacity across European militaries.
A Washington, D.C.–based defense think tank, the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), recently addressed the issue in an article published by Foreign Policy.
The report highlights demographic challenges that could complicate recruitment efforts across the continent.
Demographic Decline and Recruitment Shortfalls
CNAS noted that Europe faces a shrinking working-age population, which could limit the pool of potential military recruits:
“Closing manpower gaps may prove harder than writing bigger checks.
“The continent’s demographic crisis compounds the problem: Births in the European Union fell below 4 million in 2022 for the first time since 1960, shrinking the pool of potential recruits as geopolitical threats—chief among them, Russian aggression—demand larger, more capable forces…”
The report also cited European Commission estimates projecting a 43 million reduction in the EU’s working-age population by 2070.
CNAS argued that technological advances, including drone warfare, have not eliminated the need for large numbers of personnel.
“Ukraine’s grinding war of attrition has laid bare an uncomfortable truth: Emerging capabilities in the form of high-tech weaponry cannot substitute for boots on the ground,” the report states.
“Soldiers, sailors, marines, coast guardsmen, and airmen are the backbone of national defense…”