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Rob Ford’s medical shock gives Olivia Chow a second chance

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Rob Ford’s medical shock gives Olivia Chow a second chance

Olivia Chow’s campaign has been given a glimmer of hope, writes Royson James.

Mayoral candidates Olivia Chow and John Tory have responded with class to the shocking news that Mayor Rob Ford is hospitalized with a tumour in his belly. At a debate Thursday, Chow asked attendees to say a prayer for Ford to return to the race for mayor.

By mid-afternoon Friday we’ll know if Ford’s name will remain on the ballot. The deadline to withdraw is 2 p.m. There is no reason to believe Ford will exit the race if there is a sliver of a chance he might recover and contest the race.

But whether Ford stays or leaves, this unanticipated intervention is the pause Chow desperately needs. That’s the raw politics of this dramatic development.

Great competitors make their own breaks. They don’t look to gain advantage because of an opponent’s misfortune. Still, Ford’s health problems could not have come at a worse time for the mayor and a better time for the faltering Chow.

Trailing badly in third place behind Tory and Ford, and falling in the opinion polls even as Tory rises, the Chow campaign has been given the first glimmer of hope in the months since she led the race to be mayor.

It’s like being tossed a lifeline, another chance, a reprieve. And, of course, the screen writer penning this masterpiece of a Hollywood political drama has to link Chow’s hope with Ford’s despair.

On Friday morning, for example, Chow will find herself in a one-on-one, mano-a-mano debate with the candidate she must beat to carry the anti-Ford flag into the Oct. 27 election.

Tory will be right across from her at the Ontario Home Builders’ Association debate, with no other candidate between them. No more excuses about being bullied by the loudmouths; no complaints about the challenge of five candidates speaking over each other.

If Tory’s positions are damaging or dangerous, Chow can confront them directly. If Tory is misrepresenting her policy positions, she can set the record straight.

Of course, Tory has the same opportunities to confront Chow so there are risks and opportunities for each. But it is Chow that has the most to gain — just when it seemed her campaign had lost all hope of finishing on top.

Voters more naturally aligned with Chow’s progressive policies might feel liberated now that the Ford threat is lessened. They could migrate to familiar terrain. And if the next opinion poll shows even a slight movement back towards Chow, we could be in for a dandy of a home stretch.

This analysis examines only the political ramifications. Life is so much more than politics. And if Ford’s health issues are significant enough to push the mayor away from city hall, the tragedy is that of a man unable to test the limits of his achievement because ill-health forced him to abort the mission. This is a tragedy played out numerous times a day all across our city. In this case, the mayor’s fate — political and otherwise — intersects with the city’s. So we all get to examine it.

If Ford stays in the race for mayor, the spectre of “Ford more years” remains — to the chagrin of his motivated opponents and the delight of Ford Nation.

The sympathy vote may bump up his polling numbers a couple percentage points, but the narrative still revolves around Ford vs AnybodybutFord. As such, any break in the narrative and rhythm of the campaign may be short-lived. Before long, this highly divisive campaign will regain its voice.

If Ford leaves, throw out all the predictions, forecasts and political analysis offered over the last year. And it would be a downer for most observers and participants.

Ford Nation believe their Robbie will survive all the political slings and arrows and emerge victorious on voting day. They are practicing the epithets: Damn the polls! Down with the elites! Take that, Toronto Star! For the end to come this way is equivalent to losing a game in the semi-finals when the whole town is jacked up in anticipation of the Stanley Cup finals.

The anti-Ford voters want him gone, but not this way. They want the pleasure of voting him out of office. They expect Oct. 27 to be cathartic.

Councillor Joe Mihevc (Open Joe Mihevc’s policard) voiced it Thursday when he said: “We want to have the public debate about whether we want ‘Ford more years’ or not and he needs to be part of it.”

But there is nothing conventional or predictable about Rob Ford.

Royson James usually appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. Email: [email protected]

http://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2014/09/12/rob_fords_medical_shock_gives_olivia_chow_a_second_chance_james.html#

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