in World News Liberals slide further as Conservatives make gains on security fears
Liberals slide further as Conservatives make gains on security fears
The political landscape looks very different in the aftermath of last month’s two terror-linked shootings. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen their fairly solid and stable 12-point lead collapse into a three-point lead.
The return of security as a political priority has propelled Stephen Harper’s Conservative party to heights it hasn’t seen in nearly two years — redrawing the political calculus around election timing. The Liberals and the NDP have faltered in the aftermath of these episodes and the Conservatives are close to the polling range which could see them returned to power.
The critical question is how durable these effects are, and whether they’ll affect Stephen Harper’s decision to respect or ignore the fixed election date. It is entirely possible that Mr. Harper may choose to go to the electorate early, with the opposition quite possibly ill-prepared to fight an election over terrorism.
The tracking on the more dominant long-term issue — the economy — suggests that there has been no improvement in public outlook on this front. That leads to the question of whether the Conservatives can improve on the gains they’ve made recently, as the public almost inevitably will turn the focus from security to jobs and Canada’s stagnant economy.
Although it is highly unlikely that the Conservatives were considering an early election call before last month, the bounce they’ve received from recent events is likely to dissipate as time goes on — and there’s little evidence they’ll fare well when attention returns to a moribund and unbalanced economy. There is little evidence that the public’s judgement of the incumbent’s economic and social record can produce a win. If the Conservatives’ poll numbers continue to improve, however, calling an election in the next few months might offer their best chance at success.
The Conservatives are doing well across the board and they now lead with men and the college educated; the Liberals still lead comfortably with women and university graduates. If there is good news to be found for progressive parties, it is that much of the Conservatives’ gains over the past few weeks have been concentrated in the Prairies. The inefficient over-concentration of party support in this region will penalize the Conservatives in terms of seat count, although it could crush any Liberal hopes of capturing seats in Alberta for the first time since 2004.
The Liberals continue to lead in Ontario and, interestingly, have captured a small lead in Quebec — both provinces which will be critical to the outcome of the 2015 election. Indeed, their newfound lead looks very similar to the constituency Jean Chrétien had going for him when he won three successive majorities. There is, however, very little good news for the NDP in this poll; they do not seem to lead in any area of the country and, at these figures, they would be reduced to a (rather distant) third place.
All of these movements appear to be driven almost entirely by the security-related events of the past few weeks. There is no evidence that income-splitting is behind this rise in Conservative fortunes. Canadians do not believe the economy is getting stronger; if anything, they see it as weakening. Fears over the short-term economic outlook have spiked in recent weeks, with the percentage of respondents saying they’ll be better off a year from now at an all-time low.