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Alberta election polls show unexpected ‘left-right squeeze’ that threatens PC dynasty

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Alberta election polls show unexpected ‘left-right squeeze’ that threatens PC dynasty

The polls are now too numerous and too consistent to ignore.

Something is happening in Alberta — something that was never supposed to happen. A handful of public polls is showing a surge for the New Democratic and the Wildrose parties — a left-right split that is draining support from the long-ruling Progressive Conservatives.

As NDP leader Rachel Notley boasts hundreds of supporters attending in rallies in Calgary and Edmonton, Wildrose is hitting its stride in rural Alberta. Both are campaigning against Premier Jim Prentice’s budget, which managed to make no one happy with its mix of spending reductions and tax hikes.

Several polls, ranging from telephone robocalls to online surveys, have placed Wildrose, the PCs and the NDP in a virtual dead heat: the NDP’s support appears to be concentrated in Edmonton, with some key ridings in Calgary and Lethbridge in play; Wildrose shows more diffuse support across the province; and Prentice’s popularity seems to be sinking as he struggles to paint his party as the only reasonable answer to two “extreme” alternatives.

“You never like to see the trends, so regardless of the validity of those polls, the concern is there is a trend,” said one PC campaigner.

Indeed, Stephen Carter, who ran the party’s campaign in 2012, is watching the drama unfold from the outside this time.

“I’d be nervous,” he said. “We’ve got a left-right squeeze, and that’s the worst squeeze you can get.”

He also noted the regional concentration of support favoured the opposition.

“The NDP is doing great in Edmonton, just fantastic, and I believe that’s real. I believe that’s sustainable. And you have Wildrose coming back at a time when everyone was questioning whether they could come back … they are coming back in a big way.”

Prentice’s budget managed to upset both sides of the political divide.

“They really alienated both the left with their cuts and the right with their 59 new taxes. (Wildrose leader) Brian Jean can ride those suckers all the way to the bank.”

This was not supposed to be a difficult election for the PCs. Prentice called the vote a year early — the more cynical suggest it was an attempt to finish off the troublesome Wildrose, fatally weakened by the mass defection of nine of its MLAs in December.

But the backlash against the PCs has been intense. First, the election violated the spirit of the fixed-date election law they supported. It also revealed the entitlement and lack of fair play that have long perturbed the government’s critics — and even many of its supporters.

Last week, Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi took a direct hit at the government: “I think that if we’re in a world where it’s difficult to find $200,000 to investigate the deaths of children in care, to then find $30 million to run an election, it’s a tough argument for me to make if I were in that shoe.”

Prentice, meanwhile, is playing it safe.

He has unveiled plans to maintain spending on health care, education and infrastructure. He’s promised to get the province off the oil-and-gas royalty “roller coaster.” He’s pointed out the opposition parties’ lack of credible or detailed plans (made all the fuzzier by the early election call).

But the only line that has generated hearty applause came Monday in a Calgary convention centre filled with diehard Tories, when he promised an Alberta that would be “comfortable in the world and subservient to no one.”

Despite the underwhelming start, several PCs said it was far, far too early to panic. Even the least favourable polls suggest many voters are undecided.

“The polls don’t bother us. In the first couple of weeks of a campaign, there’s just too much volatility out there,” said one.

“No one knows what (the other parties) really stand for. People aren’t paying attention. The lights haven’t gone on.”

Most voters won’t make up their mind until the final week of campaigning.

Carter tends to agree. The people who respond to polling at this point are hyper-engaged, already angry at the PCs, or deeply partisan.

“As soon as people believe that Jean or Notley could be the next premier, things will switch back to the PCs,” he said.

Janet Brown, a well-established Alberta pollster, said there’s no question the PC’s are dropping, but she suspects the polls overstate voters’ appetite for change, just as they did in 2012, when Wildrose was largely expected to form government, right before they didn’t.

“Are voters just trying to send a message, (or) will they lose their nerve come election day?”

National Post

 

http://www.canada.com/news/national/Alberta+election+polls+show+unexpected+left+right+squeeze+that/10972278/story.html

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