Could 2024 Election End in an Electoral College ‘Blowout’? CNN Analyst Says It’s Likely
CNN data expert Harry Enten argued Thursday, based on the history of swing state polling, that either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could be heading for an Electoral College “relative blowout.”
And if recent election cycle trends hold, that candidate would be Trump.
CNN host John Berman introduced the segment with Enten, noting the reporting on this year’s race has been focused on it being “historically close.”
“What if it’s not?” he asked.
The Real Clear Polling national average shows the race tied, while Trump leads in all seven battleground states on average by less than one percent.
“As close as it is, and we do believe it‘s super close right now, that also means that if things change, even just a little bit, it’s not really close,” Berman said.
“It isn’t,” Enten agreed. “So we have been talking about the idea that there‘s going to be a historically close election. I think I might have said it on this particular program, but in fact — will the winner get at least 300 electoral votes? The answer is, majority [chance] yes,” according to an aggregate of forecast models.
“There is a … 60 percent chance that the winner of this election gets at least 300 electoral votes versus just a 40 percent chance that the winner ends up getting less than 300 electoral votes,” Enten added.
“So for all the talk that we’ve had about this election being historically close, which it is, chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College,” he contended.
Enten explained that in recent elections, the swing states have tended to swing together in terms of polling versus actual election results.