Six years ago, an Order-in-Council banned more than 2,500 models of what Ottawa calls “assault-style” firearms. That OIC included common hunting and sporting rifles that were owned, stored and used legally.
In January 2026, Mark Carney’s Liberal government finally launched its long-promised “Assault-Style Firearms Compensation Program.”
The “voluntary” program demands gun owners declare which makes and models they own, with a March 31, 2026, deadline.
The “amnesty” protecting gun owners from criminal liability ends on October 30, 2026.
On paper, Carney’s plan looks decisive, but it’s a house built on sand.
The government estimated approximately 136,000 affected firearms are owned by licensed gun owners.[i]
As of mid-February 2026, just over 32,000 prohibited firearms (23.5%) have been declared nationwide.[ii]
At the current declaration rate, Ottawa’s projection is unrealistic.
Most of the country is refusing to cooperate.
- Quebec has committed.
- Alberta and Saskatchewan passed protective legislation.
- Ontario, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador declined.
- All three territories declined.
- Toronto Police declined.
- Ontario Provincial Police declined.
- Municipal departments across the country declined.
They’re not lining up to collect guns from licensed owners, citing a variety of issues, including resource constraints and operational priorities.
Translation: They have real crime to deal with.
The Data Point That Changes the Argument
Licensed PAL holders commit homicide at rates far below the Canadian average. That reality is documented repeatedly, including in Fraser Institute commentary dated February 23.[iii]
Yet Ottawa targets the most vetted firearms owners in the country, while gang shootings fuelled by smuggled U.S. handguns continue unabated.
And then there’s the RCMP, who just can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot.
The Agency Demanding Trust Cannot Secure Your Data
While law-abiding owners receive round after round of emails from the Canadian Firearms Program urging them to self-report or risk criminal consequences after October 30, news broke of another example of RCMP incompetence.[iv]
On February 10, the Investigative Journalism Foundation reported that a 2021 cyber breach at the RCMP-operated Canadian Firearms Program was the largest federal data breach in the last five years.
Names, addresses, contact details and licence records for 2.2 million PAL holders were hacked. The RCMP learned of a ransomware or malware attack on its third-party contractor on March 17, 2021.
- The RCMP waited six months before reporting it to the Office of the Privacy Commissioner.
- A warning was posted to the CFP website, then quietly removed by June.
- Vague references to notifying clients were offered, but no urgent, widespread alert followed.
- The government’s official line claimed there was no indication that gun owner information was viewed or extracted, but that claim could not be confirmed.
Consider the optics.
The same agency that presided over the largest federal data breach in half a decade is asking you to log into its portal, submit serial numbers, and trust it with further personal information under a confiscation scheme.
This is Not About Public Safety
The government can’t “buy back” guns it never sold.
“Our guns are not for sale” is not a fringe slogan.
It is a signal of mistrust.
This is a firearms confiscation scheme focused on law-abiding citizens, while drug dealers, gang members and other violent criminals are completely ignored.
Polls show Canadians support sensible firearm policy, yet support for public safety is not the issue.
The issues are credibility, execution and focus.
The RCMP has no credibility.
The Liberal government has no clue how to execute its gun confiscation intentions, and both the RCMP and the federal Liberal government are focused on the wrong target: licensed firearms owners.
Yet the deadlines remain.
- March 31 for voluntary firearm declarations.
- October 30 for compliance with the law.
But the deeper deadline is political.
How long can Ottawa and the RCMP claim success when:
- Premiers refuse to participate.
- Police services across the country refuse to confiscate guns from licensed Canadians.
- Gun owner participation lags far behind government projections.
- Public trust continues to plummet.
As a government, you can pass orders, you can underfund your confiscation scheme in a crass attempt to pit gun owner against gun owner, but…
You cannot compel confidence or trust.
And right now, confidence and trust are the missing pieces.
Until that changes, no government press release can change one fundamental truth.
Mark Carney’s firearms confiscation compensation scheme is a colossal failure. |
