Early Returns of Republican Ballots Triple in California 2026 Primary
by Nick R. Hamilton
Republican voter turnout is surging in deep-blue California ahead of the state’s June 2 primary election, according to newly released early voting data that is rattling assumptions about Democrat dominance in the nation’s largest state.
More than 900,000 early ballots have already been returned, and Republicans are turning them in at roughly three times the rate seen during the last gubernatorial cycle.
It marks a dramatic shift that is forcing both parties to reassess the political landscape heading into 2026.
GOP Early Vote Numbers Spike While Democrats Fall Behind
Data from Political Data Inc. (PDI), a nonpartisan California election analytics firm, shows Republicans accounting for 37 percent of the 905,889 ballots returned so far — an 11-point increase compared to the same stage of the 2022 midterm primary.
Meanwhile, Democrats dropped sharply, falling 13 points to just 41 percent of returned ballots.
Independent and other voters made up the remaining 22 percent.
The numbers remain preliminary, and mail ballot returns do not always predict final outcomes.
However, the scale of the Republican increase has drawn widespread attention in a state where Democrats currently control every statewide office.
PDI Vice President Paul Mitchell suggested Republicans may simply be returning to pre-2020 voting habits after years of skepticism surrounding mail-in voting.
“Republicans are potentially returning their ballots at a pre-2020 rate, before President Donald Trump and other leaders discouraged it,” Mitchell explained.